Texas housing market 2026 at a glance: The statewide median sale price was $341,800 in March 2026, down 1.8% year over year, per Redfin. Active inventory stands at 141,519 homes with 10.07 months of supply as of March 31, 2026. Median days on market is 82 days, up 12 from a year ago. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.54% as of May 2026, per Bankrate. The Texas Real Estate Research Center forecasts modest 2.5% sales growth and a year-end median near $334,000 for full-year 2026.
The Texas housing market in 2026 is a buyer's market in ways it has not been since before the pandemic. Inventory has almost doubled from the levels that defined the frenzied 2021-2022 era. Homes are sitting longer. Price cuts are widespread. And sellers who are still anchored to peak-era valuations are finding out the hard way that the market has moved on.
That does not mean Texas is in distress. The fundamentals that drove a decade of population growth and business relocation are still intact. Jobs are being created. People are still moving to Texas. The correction underway is a normalization, not a collapse.
But the experience of buying or selling in Texas in 2026 is genuinely different depending on which city, which price tier, and which side of the transaction you are on. This guide covers the full picture: the statewide data, the city-level breakdowns for Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, what the Texas Real Estate Research Center forecasts for the rest of the year, and what the current market means for landlords, investors, and HOA communities. For a comparison with the other major Sun Belt state market, see the California Housing Market 2026 guide.
Texas Housing Market Forecast 2026: What the Data Actually Says
The Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) at Texas A&M University is the gold-standard source for Texas real estate data. Its 2026 forecast projects total single-family home sales rising 2.5% to approximately 349,000 units, with a year-end median price of around $334,000, a 1.3% gain from 2025.
Those are the baseline projections. The current mid-year picture shows the market tracking slightly below those numbers on pricing. Redfin's March 2026 statewide data shows a median of $341,800, down 1.8% year over year, with inventory significantly higher than any point in recent memory.
Sources: TRERC 2026 Texas Real Estate Forecast; Redfin Texas Housing Market (March 2026); Zillow Texas Home Values; Bankrate Mortgage Rates (May 11, 2026); Norada — Texas Inventory (March 31, 2026)
Mortgage rate note: TRERC's 2026 forecast assumed a 30-year rate of 5.0% to 5.6% by December 2026. As of May 11, 2026, the national 30-year fixed rate is 6.54% per Bankrate, significantly above the forecast range. Rate-sensitive buyer demand has therefore been more constrained than TRERC originally projected. The full-year sales forecast remains plausible if rates decline in H2 2026, but is at risk if they do not.
The broader context from TRERC's Spring 2026 Housing report is that 2026 opened with rising seller activity, elevated inventory, and persistent pricing pressure as affordability challenges continue to shape buyer demand. The National Mortgage Professional's January 2026 summary of TRERC's November 2025 MLS data confirmed the trajectory: sales down 8% year over year, supply climbing above balanced-market norms, and price cuts spreading across major metros.
Texas Home Prices 2026: Down Statewide, Divergent by Metro
The statewide headline: Redfin's March 2026 data puts the Texas median sale price at $341,800, down 1.8% year over year. Zillow's average home value is $306,682, down 2.2% over the same period. Both figures tell the same directional story: statewide prices are softening, not collapsing.
The statewide number, however, blends three very different metro-level stories. Austin is correcting from pandemic-era overvaluation. Dallas is posting the sharpest year-over-year decline of the major metros. Houston is holding up with modest positive momentum. San Antonio is seeing softening driven by the same insurance cost and oversupply pressures Redfin flagged in its 2026 cooling market predictions. Understanding which market you are in matters more than the state average.
Sources: Redfin Texas (March 2026); Zillow Texas; NMP / TRERC November 2025 MLS Data; Redfin 2026 Predictions
Austin Housing Market 2026
Austin at a Glance (May 2026)
Zillow avg home value: ~$494,727
YoY price change: -3.6% (Zillow)
Market condition: Buyer's market — correcting from pandemic peak
Days on market: Above state average; homes sitting longer
Key driver: Oversupply from pandemic-era construction boom
The Austin housing market in 2026 is the clearest example in Texas of what happens after a boomtown builds ahead of demand. According to Zillow's home value data, the average home value sits at approximately $494,727, down about 3.6% year over year. For a city that spent three years as the poster child of the pandemic housing boom, that is a meaningful correction from the peak.
Austin overbuilt. New construction flooded the market during the remote-work migration wave, and supply has been running ahead of demand ever since. Layer on top of that the surge in homeowner insurance costs — Texas has seen some of the steepest increases in the country due to storm exposure and weather-related risk — and the true monthly cost of owning a home in Austin has climbed even in neighborhoods where the list price has dropped.
Redfin's 2026 housing market predictions specifically name Austin as one of the markets most likely to cool further this year, pointing to insurance costs, natural disaster risk, and the reversal of pandemic-era remote work patterns. A New York Post report from February 2026 documented price cuts sweeping Austin alongside San Antonio, Dallas, and other Sun Belt metros — confirming Austin is part of a wider rebalancing, not an isolated correction.
What this means for buyers and sellers in Austin
For buyers, 2026 is genuinely the most favorable Austin market in years. Days on market are longer, price reductions are more common, and inspection contingencies are a normal part of transactions again — none of which was true in 2021 or 2022. Entry points exist right now that simply were not available at the peak.
For sellers, the most important adjustment is pricing to today's market, not to memory. Listings anchored to peak-era valuations are sitting. Austin still has strong long-term fundamentals: the job market, the infrastructure investment, the cultural draw. But buyers in 2026 are disciplined and data-driven, and they have options.
Dallas Housing Market 2026
Dallas at a Glance (May 2026)
Redfin median sale price: ~$375,000
Zillow avg home value: ~$301,697
YoY price change: -4.1% est. (steepest among major TX metros)
Market condition: Buyer-leaning; significant submarket variation
Key driver: Pandemic-era construction surge; outer suburbs softest
The Dallas housing market in 2026 is showing the steepest correction among Texas's major metros. Redfin's median sale price for Dallas sits around $375,000, while Zillow's average home value tracks lower at $301,697. The gap between those figures reflects the size and diversity of the DFW metro: the closer-in neighborhoods and the outer suburban growth corridors are genuinely different markets operating at different price levels.
Dallas-Fort Worth built aggressively during the pandemic boom years. Communities like McKinney, Frisco, and Prosper saw record permit activity, and they are now seeing some of the softest pricing as that supply works through the system. Closer-in neighborhoods with tighter supply constraints are holding up materially better. This is why zip code matters more than the metro headline in DFW.
Dallas outlook through 2026
The correction in Dallas looks like a normalization rather than a collapse. Norada's March 2026 data projects Dallas at approximately -0.3% by April 2026 and -0.6% by June 2026, with modest stabilization expected in the second half. Dallas has the underlying fundamentals to participate in a recovery when rates ease: strong job growth, consistent population inflow, and a diversified economy not dependent on any single sector. For buyers, 2026 is an opportunity window in DFW that has not been open since before the pandemic.
Houston Housing Market 2026
Houston at a Glance (May 2026)
Redfin median sale price: ~$324,200
Zillow avg home value: ~$260,149
YoY price change: +3.2% (only major TX metro with positive growth)
Market condition: Buyer-friendly; stable; most affordable major metro
Key driver: Diversified economy; land supply kept prices from overextending
If Austin is the cautionary tale and Dallas is the complicated middle, the Houston housing market in 2026 is the relative bright spot. Redfin's median sale price for Houston sits at approximately $324,200, while Zillow's average home value tracks at $260,149. Houston is the only major Texas metro posting positive year-over-year price growth, and it remains the most affordable entry point among the major metros.
Houston did not experience the same vertical price spike that Austin did during the pandemic years. Its more abundant land supply, permissive development policies, and historically lower price floor meant valuations never got as stretched, which in turn means there is less correction to absorb. The city that looked boring compared to Austin in 2021 is looking considerably more stable in 2026.
Houston's economic diversification is the other supporting factor. The energy sector gets most of the headlines, but the city has built significant scale in healthcare, logistics, and aerospace. That employment base is sustaining demand even as the broader Texas market softens. For first-time buyers, Houston is the most realistic path into Texas homeownership among the major metros. For investors, the cash flow math tends to work better here given lower acquisition costs and a rental demand base that is holding steady.
San Antonio Housing Market 2026
San Antonio at a Glance (May 2026)
Approx. median price: ~$270,000 (varied by source)
YoY price change: -1.8% (TRERC/NMP November 2025 data)
Market condition: Cooling; Redfin names it among 2026's most-at-risk metros
Key driver: Insurance cost surge; remote-work reversal; oversupply in outer ring
6-month forecast: -0.1% by April 2026; -0.5% by June 2026 (Norada)
San Antonio is the fourth-largest Texas metro and the one that appears most frequently in the 2026 cooling-market conversation. Redfin's 2026 predictions explicitly name San Antonio alongside Austin as markets most likely to continue softening, citing insurance costs, natural disaster exposure, and the reversal of pandemic-era migration patterns.
The NMP/TRERC November 2025 data showed San Antonio prices down approximately 1.8% year over year, and Norada's March 2026 projections forecast further modest softening through mid-year: approximately -0.1% by April 2026 and -0.5% by June 2026. The outer ring of San Antonio's metro, where pandemic-era construction was heaviest, is showing the most pressure. Closer-in neighborhoods and established suburban areas are holding up better.
For buyers, San Antonio offers the most affordable entry point in Texas after Houston, with median prices around $270,000. The negotiating environment is the most favorable it has been in years. For sellers and investors, accurate pricing and realistic timeline expectations are essential. Listings priced to 2022 comparables are sitting.
Texas Inventory and Market Conditions in 2026
The inventory picture is the most significant shift in the Texas market since the pandemic boom. Ten months of supply at 141,519 active listings as of March 31, 2026 is not a distressed market, but it is firmly a buyer's market by every conventional measure. Markets with fewer than three months of supply favor sellers; above six months favors buyers; above nine months indicates significant supply pressure.
The NMP/TRERC summary of November 2025 MLS data captured the turning point: homes that sold were taking an average of 72 days; unsold inventory was lingering at an average of 103 days. By March 2026, Redfin's data shows median days on market at 82 days, with 30.3% of listings carrying price reductions and a sale-to-list ratio of 97.1%.
That environment changes buyer and seller behavior in predictable ways. Buyers make more below-list offers. Inspection contingencies come back. Sellers who are not priced accurately sit while correctly-priced homes still move. Texas in 2026 is not 2008 — there is no wave of distressed sellers or bad loans driving the supply surge. It is a market adjusting to rates that did not come down as fast as forecast and inventory that built faster than demand recovered.
What the 2026 Texas Housing Market Means for Landlords, Investors, and HOA Communities
Most Texas housing market coverage is written for buyers and sellers. Landlords, rental property investors, and HOA community boards face a different set of questions, and the 2026 market dynamics have specific and practical implications for each.
Rental demand is supported by affordability math
Texas single-family rental rates are forecast to reach approximately $2,200 per month statewide by year-end 2026, per the TRERC 2026 forecast. Conditions will vary by market, particularly in metros with excess apartment supply. In Austin and Dallas, where multifamily deliveries have been heavy, rental rate growth is softer. In Houston, rental demand is holding up more steadily alongside the more stable ownership market.
The fundamental driver of rental demand is affordability. When the monthly cost of owning a home at current prices and rates is significantly higher than renting a comparable property, households stay renters longer. At a 6.54% mortgage rate and a $341,800 median price, the monthly payment math is still pushing a meaningful share of potential buyers to the sidelines. That sustains the renter pool.
For practical guidance on managing Texas rental properties in this environment, see 22 essential tips for first-time rental property owners. For how AI is changing rent optimization and tenant retention, see how AI in property management optimizes rent and retention.
Texas has more HOA communities than any other state — and specific financial pressures in 2026
Texas has over 21,500 HOA communities serving more than 5.6 million residents, the highest density of any US state according to Community Associations Institute data. The 2026 housing market creates two specific pressure points for Texas HOA boards.
First, lower ownership turnover in softening markets. As buyer activity slows and sellers hold off, HOA communities see fewer ownership transitions, which means fewer new owners onboarding to assessment payment systems and community rules. Assessment collection discipline and delinquency tracking become more important when the community is not being naturally refreshed by new buyers moving in.
Second, insurance cost pressure. Texas HOA communities are facing the same insurance market stress hitting individual homeowners: carriers exiting the market, premiums rising on storm and weather-related risk, and renewal costs increasing substantially in wildfire-adjacent and coastal areas. For HOA boards budgeting for 2026 and 2027, property and liability insurance is the line item most likely to produce a significant surprise. Getting broker estimates early, before the budget season finalizes, is no longer optional.
For HOA boards managing through this environment, see HOA financial management, HOA reserve funds, and the HOA budget planning guide for frameworks that apply directly to Texas associations. For the full accounting and compliance picture, the HOA accounting guide covers Texas-specific financial reporting obligations under Tex. Prop. Code Ch. 204.
Investor considerations by metro
The investment calculus varies significantly across Texas metros in 2026. Houston offers the best entry-level acquisition costs and the most stable rental demand base. Dallas and Austin have lower prices than their peaks but still carry more execution risk as the correction plays out. San Antonio's affordability makes it attractive for entry-level investors, but rental market softness in the outer ring requires careful submarket analysis before committing.
Across all Texas markets, the gap between current acquisition costs and rental income is more favorable than it was in 2022, when prices were 20-30% higher and rates were 300 basis points lower. The challenge in 2026 is that financing costs have not fallen to offset price declines sufficiently for all investors. Cash buyers and low-leverage investors are in a stronger position than rate-dependent acquisitions.
Is It a Good Time to Buy a House in Texas in 2026?
For buyers who are financially ready, 2026 is the most favorable Texas market in years. Inventory is abundant at 10 months of supply. Homes are selling at 97.1% of list price on average, with 30.3% of listings carrying active price reductions. Days on market are at 82 days statewide, giving buyers time to make considered decisions rather than waiving contingencies under competitive pressure.
The caveat is rates. At 6.54%, financing costs remain elevated relative to what buyers in 2020 and 2021 experienced. The monthly payment on a $341,800 home at 6.54% with 20% down is approximately $1,745 per month in principal and interest, before taxes, insurance, and HOA fees. That payment is manageable in the context of Texas incomes in most metros, but it is not the affordability windfall that cheap prices alone might suggest.
The best opportunities in 2026 are in Houston and the affordable end of the San Antonio market for first-time buyers and entry-level investors. For move-up buyers and investors with capital, Austin and Dallas offer price points meaningfully below their peaks with strong long-term fundamentals. For a state-by-state comparison with California, see the California Housing Market 2026 guide.
The Bottom Line
The Texas housing market in 2026 is a buyer's market in a way it has not been since the mid-2010s. Inventory is abundant, price cuts are widespread, days on market are long by historical standards, and sellers are accepting offers below list price across all four major metros. That is not a crisis. It is a correction.
The fundamentals that make Texas attractive have not changed: population is still growing, businesses are still relocating, and employment bases across DFW, Houston, and Austin are diversified enough to sustain long-term demand. What has changed is the pricing and negotiating environment, and for buyers, investors, and landlords who are financially ready, 2026 offers more access to that long-term value than any year since before the pandemic.
For landlords managing Texas rental properties, the 22 tips for first-time rental property owners and how AI in property management optimizes rent and retention are the right starting points. For Texas HOA boards navigating insurance cost pressure and lower community turnover, HOA financial management and the HOA reserve funds guide provide the frameworks that matter most in this environment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Texas housing market forecast for 2026?
Texas housing market forecasts for 2026 show stable sales activity, high inventory levels, and moderate pricing adjustments. Mortgage rates and affordability continue influencing buyer demand statewide.
What are Texas home prices in 2026?
Texas home prices in 2026 vary by market, with statewide median prices around the mid-$300,000 range. Some major metros are experiencing modest year-over-year price declines.
Will the Texas housing market crash in 2026?
Most analysts do not expect a Texas housing market crash in 2026. Strong population growth, job markets, and lending standards continue supporting long-term housing demand.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Texas in 2026?
For many buyers, 2026 offers improved opportunities due to higher inventory, more price reductions, and less competition. Buyers now have greater negotiating power than during the pandemic market.
What is happening in the Austin housing market in 2026?
Austin’s housing market is cooling from pandemic-era highs, with softer prices and increased inventory. Buyers have more leverage, while sellers must price homes competitively for current market conditions.
Sales Leader
Noah Gerboff is a strategic sales leader with deep experience in SaaS, real estate, and lending. He specializes in market-driven insights, sales optimization, and helping organizations scale through data-informed strategies.