Rental Property Market Forecast

The US rental property market is under pressure.

Political and economic pressures are drying up rental housing stock, stifling new construction, and removing renter’s available discretionary income.

While politicians and renters are wishing for lower rent prices, there are factors that may make that doubtful. Yet, forecasting rent prices in a post pandemic period amid uncertainty about a potential recession can’t be an exact thing.

Rent prices could actually go either way as government policy and investor sentiment unfolds. Currently, the market is perhaps learning the hard way to respect investors — that if investment is discouraged or withdrawn, it can reduce rental housing supply, and actually raise rent prices.

While the housing market and rental market are showing signs of cooling, we may see even higher rental prices in 2023. Few are talking about the real sources of recent cooling and the strange state of the labor market and wages right now.

Lack of Rental Supply Will Drive Prices

As the next 5 years evolve, we’ll likely see rent prices fall gradually. For 2023, higher interest rates and mortgage rates, and higher unemployment are expected thus reducing the wealth of funds renters have to spend on rent.

Yet, renters are desperate and some cities will see big rent prices. With the push to bring corporate workers back from remote work to the office, New York, San Francisco, San Diego, Chicago, Boston and other major metros are seeing strong rent prices this fall.

Yet, rental housing continues to dwindle, while immigration grows, and those aged 25 to 40 continue to form households and have children. Housing prices may fall in 2023, should a recession occur, yet from then on, they should return to higher values based on returning demand.

A certain school of belief has it this recession will be mild and all elements from banks to American savings, to corporate strength to consumer spending will be strong in 2023. Few believe interest rates will go that high, or that energy prices will soar to bring about a severe market downturn.

Enjoy further insights in this State of the Rental Market Report for 2022 which includes stats, projections and forecasts from major data sources and experts.

NAR Housing Forecast

Overall, the rental market is seeing cooling growth as prices only climbed 7.8% year over year, yet were down slightly from August. Anyone looking for the good old days, must know that national rents were 24.8% higher in September compared to September 2019. They have a long way to retreat to affordable levels.

Zumper’s September rent price report on the other hand found national one-bedroom rent prices reached a new high of $1,503 and two-bedroom rents as well, now $1,845, is an all-time high. Any talk of rents cooling is likely premature.

NAR’s report showed studio apartments were up 10.1% year over year to $1,483.  And 1 bedrooms rose 7.7% to $1,647, and 2 bedroom prices rose 6.4% to $1,941 per month.

Zumper’s Rent Report

Zumper’s recent report shows rents for 2 bedroom inched back above 10%, indicating there are changes via migration and the types of rental units sought.

US rent price history chart. Screenshot courtesy of Zumper.

Some startling stats arise from that report too. New York City prices are still up 33% for 1 bedrooms and up 40% YoY for 2 bedrooms. Even with the exodus from San Francisco and California rent prices in SF rose 2% for 1 bedrooms and fell slightly for 2 bedrooms.

Rents in Boston, Honolulu, Santa Ana, Providence, Plano, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, Anchorage, Kansas City, Memphis, and Tallahassee had sizable price growth over the previous month.

A migratory shift might be creating these changes as workers return to urban centers for work, and as others simply hunt for cheaper rent.

What’s not in the rent price projections are millions of workers who are choosing not to return to the job market. At some point, they will have to return and therefore may need a rental apartment.

With mortgage rates growing, more demand for rental homes comes from homeowners who must sell given they can’t afford their monthly mortgage payments. This comes as the cost of living erodes available incomes.

Rent Prices Rising

For landlords, it looks like the rental market has improved greatly with rent prices rising so fast in 2022.

A lot of investment money came into help big corporate landlord firms buy up rental properties, as some landlords gave up. More came into the built to rent market, but of late new housing starts and permits have dropped off steeply.  New construction won’t return until real estate and materials prices fall, lending rates fall, and employment trends back up.

Landlords will want to learn better management strategies with improved modern business models and build their business on a modern property management system that will allow them to grow services and increase efficiency.

Even middle-class buyers are turning to the rental, and will be frightened with the lack of stock. The issue of housing prices, rising interest rates, and labor shortage will create headwinds for landlords and multifamily investors, but the market does look solid for some time yet.

This 2021 rental housing market report reveals market trends, demographics, business challenges, rent yields/returns, and where the opportunities might be for investors and landlords. Info is draw from numerous credible sources including Zumper, Harvard University, Freddie Mac, Apartmentlist, Attom Data, PWC, Urban Land Institute, Census.gov and others.

While research and survey sources vary in their estimates you can round off the figures and come to some reasonable conclusions for you particular use.

Small Landlords Still the Backbone of the Residential Property Industry

When the rental housing market failed last May, the government leaned heavily on all landlords to pay the bills while tenants and mortgage banks trembled in fear. We all discovered how important local landlords are to communities and local economies.

While big real estate corporations received infusions of stimulus cash, small landlords found rent default was a problem and receiving stimulus funds themselves to be difficult. Many of them reported selling condos, apartments etc., at a discount to to cash rich buyers.

Despite an unfair playing field, it is likely small real estate investors and small business landlords will find a way to buy rental income properties and flourish 2022 and the next 5 years. We’ve learned that for some, being rental landlords is a business not a hobby and new solutions will help.

the global market is forecast grow at a CAGR of 8% from 2021 to reach $28.1 billion in 2028

What is the Size of US Rental Property Market?

According to Fortune Business Insights, the global property management market is projected to grow from $15.10 billion in 2021 to $28.21 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 9.3% in forecast period.  Their numbers predict that the global property management market could grow from $15.10 billion in 2021 to $28.21 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 9.3% in forecast period.

The vacation rental market is a component of the greater residential market. It is expected to reach USD 113.9 billion by 2027, expanding at a CAGR of 3.4% over the forecast period according to a 2020 report by Grand View Research, Inc.

Yet this recovering US rental housing market faces some perils. Government regulations, construction costs, unaffordable rent prices, homelessness, the end of pandemic stimulus payouts, rent default, and eviction moratoriums poses risks for investors.

Multifamily and apartment sectors were hit very hard during the recession and are just now beginning to fill vacancies created during the pandemic.

Key Questions for Rental Property Pros

• what properties should I buy or sell?
• is this a good time to enter the rental property business?
• is it a good time to launch a property management business?
• which demographic should I target?
• why are rents high and will they fall soon?
• are urban apartments too risky an investment?
• should I consider single family houses only?
• which cities are going to see the best price growth and higher rent yields?
• is rental income property the very best overall investment for the next 5 years?

Student rental housing was hit hard by the pandemic with school and border closures. The belief is that schools will return to in person classes.  However, the glory days for student housing may have passed with virtual remote learning seeing more use and international education slowing. Demand for luxury level student housing for wealthy foreigners may not be similarly impacted.

And those landlords who improve their amenities and services, to create the best renter experience possible, will see their rentals in higher demand and likely enjoying higher rent prices.

Single family and moderate income apartments are where the big demand is and accordingly, recommendations are to buy or hold those properties.  High density apartments are seeing lower vacancy rates as vaccinations increase and workers return to the cities to work.

Rental Property buy sell recommendations. Screenshot courtesy of PWC Urban Land Institute.

After viewing these stats you might question whether the housing market is a golden egg or a ticking time bomb. If you choose your properties well and manage them professionally, the question is a moot point. Those who are aware of market pressures, and political and economic trends, present good value to renters, will adjust their portfolios when needed.

Adopting a modern property management software or landlord software is the best way to automate, control risk, and optimize profit margins.  To those points, technology is impacting the rental housing market creating new revenue opportunities for landlords and help keep pace with changing renter demands.

Smart property investors are highly tuned into macroeconomic outlooks, political changes, and other forecasts.

The rental housing market has been steadier over time and has been less likely to collapse, as when homeowners lose their homes in a recession, they move into the rental market and become long term tenants. Recession resistant investments are attractive for long term investors, or those needing a short term haven.

See more on the UK rental market and Australian rental market. Reports on the California rental market and Texas rental market are available as well.

The Rental Property Report

For your convenience, this completely revised 2022 rental housing market report has been divided up into digestible components:

1. General State of the Rental Market
2. Rental Market Statistics & Rent Prices
3. Supply and Development Constraints Continue
4. Rent Yields remain high
5. Rental Market Statistics
6. Top Drivers of the Rental Property Market
7. Top Cities for Rent Growth
8. Pandemic drives demand for more room
9. Apartment and House Rent Prices Forecast for 2021?
10. Multifamily outlook
11. Harvard University Study Findings
12. What are the Challenges for Rental Property Owners?
13. Rental Property Types
14. Are Renters are Getting Squeezed Too Hard?
15. Should I Buy Rental Property as an Investment?
16. US Housing Construction Forecast

1. General State of the Rental Market

The pandemic definitely altered views and statistics for 2020 to 2022.  As the Covid 19 pandemic passes we are seeing rises in prices, i.e, the airbnb short term rental market is seeing rapid recovery. Most may feel it will take years to recover, yet Fed stimulus, return to work routines, and a demand for vacation rentals will buoy the industry faster than expected.

This recession is unusual as vacancy rates are normally high during economic downturns.

National Rental vacancy rate. Screenshot courtesy of NBER.

See more about the current population survey at Census.gov.

The rental property and property management sectors are huge and growing given more people will be forced to rent. The 2019 forecasts couldn’t foresee the impact of the pandemic and so the predictions of the last 2 years have been way off. Forecasts for 2022 and the next 5 years have been withdrawn.

 3. Supply and Development Constraints Continue

We wonder if the market is splitting to serve the haves vs the have nots. The haves do not appear to be stopped by constrained supply. In fact, the luxury market is well served and new construction of luxury units may not be as affected by anti-development regulators.

High end renter households. Screenshot courtesy of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.

Although stimulus money may be flowing to state and city governments, regulations may prevent them building multifamily residences. The costs and logistics of such building projects are a big issue.

The key issue with the housing and rental markets is the inability of different levels of government to agree to permit building. High construction costs, rising demand, regulations, and few investors willing to risk their money for huge, speculative projects in the rent control era, means it’s more likely rents will rise.

Some question whether increased supply and high density will solve anything. There’s a point to be made that even if you build more affordable units in California, New York, or Miami, more people will move there and fill them up. Prices therefore may not fall given there is continuous demand.

4. Rental Yields Still High

Those investors in the rental market have done well, with yields (above 30% a couple of years ago in some cities), and even now some still reporting solid rental yields. Pandemic destination cities where urban residents have fled to during the pandemic fared very well however with the end of the pandemic, questions are being raised about the outlook of those cities going forward.

Will work from home employees be forced back into cities, or will they lose their jobs? It depends on political decisions made this year. Current landlords, burned by rent default losses and illegal occupation of their units are hoping 2022 will finally see things back to normal where they can run their businesses profitably.

Attom Data reports that the average annual gross rental yield (annualized gross rent income divided by median purchase price of single-family homes) in the US fell to 7.7% in 2021, down from an average of 8.4% last year.

It’s believed rising rates and rising home prices, along with flat rent prices are eating away at yields.  They report the US counties with the highest potential annual gross rental yields for 2021 include:

1. Schuylkill County, PA, (26.1%)
2. Bibb County, GA, (18.1%)
3. Baltimore City/County, MD (16.2 percent)
4. La Salle County, IL, (14.1%)
5. Chautauqua County, NY (13.7%)

And the top major metros with the best rental yields were:

• Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH (9.9%)
• Dallas County, TX (8%)
• Tarrant County (Fort Worth), TX, (8%)
• Franklin County (Columbus), OH (7.9%)
• Bexar County (San Antonio), TX (7.9%).

Of course, as the recovery continues and rent and eviction moratoriums are lifted, these numbers will greatly inflate.  A new of high rent yield cities will emerge in 2022.

5. Rental Market Statistics

If you’re one who needs statistics to weigh your investments and prices, let’s take a look at some stats that might predict markets in future.

IBIS World published a report recently that reflect the effect of Covid 19 pandemic on high density and high rise apartments. Prior to 2020 the apartment market was rising quickly nearing $192 Billion in the US market and is currently believed to be $174 billion.

Considering the recovery, and growth of rent prices and demand for apartments and condos returning this spring, plus stimulus money rolling into the US, the outlook may push it beyond US$200 Billion by 2023.

The apartment rental sector is huge. It employs over 852,000 people, yet only an average of 1.4 people per business. That reflects the industry is still a small business dominated industry, yet large corporations are buying up more properties and using technology to manage them efficiently.

Renter households are typically younger, less affluent, and more racially diverse than those who own their own homes. Statista reports that half of renters are under 30 years of age and 36% of those renters are in arrears. 38% of renters cannot afford to buy their own home.

However, wealthier renters make a much bigger piece of the pie of late.

It is the second tier of working class renters (earning up to $30k per year) who are finding it increasingly difficult to live on what they have left after paying their rent. Obviously, this consistent trend has to come to an end.

Rather the pouring money into alternative investments, investors might be encouraged to find a way to invest in rental housing.

6. Top Drivers of the Rental Property Market

These 15 factors may influence the rental housing market, priced drops, and which cities will be best to invest in.

1. buyer market is young and unable to finance the purchase of a home
2. not enough single detached homes available to buy
3. risks in buying are high with high prices, rising mortgage rates and housing market uncertainty
4. millennials are career-minded and not necessarily willing to buy now
5. bank of mom and dad may be running out of money
6. home and condo prices too high to purchase
7. buyers won’t buy due to mortgage finance restrictions and long term worries over a recession
8. cost of living rising
9. millennial preference for older urban neighborhoods with walkability
10. rents rising too fast compared to cost of buying a home
11. cap rates not sufficiently better than other investment options
12. immigration into the US is still strong
13. retiring baby boomers having tough time places to move to
14. more good condos and apartments available because regulations are decreasing and construction techniques are better
15. number and share of cost-burdened renters – those paying more than 30 percent of their income rose

If rental properties are even a quarter of the $36 Trillion US real estate market, we can say with confidence that it has major economic impact. The growth in rental apartment, rental condos, and home rentals is creating a lot of jobs including property managers, landlords, and the kind of passive income many investors need.

Cities where investment and development will grow opportunities.

Investor Demand and Development. Top cities. Screenshot courtesy of knowledge.uli.org

7. Top Cities for Rent Growth

This list of best rent price growth performers from Apartmentlist shows (from March to now) how strong these markets are. Home price values mean improving equity plus tax advantages provides a significant profit opportunity.

Screenshot courtesy of Apartmentlist.com

Opportunity Shifted Outside Major Metros

Although inner-city apartment and condo rent prices may be falling, in the US, Australia and the UK capital cities, the migration to suburbs and outlying towns is forcing rent prices up in those areas. With lower property prices in those regions and new rising demand from homebuyers and renters, the rent revenue outlook is good.

Charlotte, San Antonio, Milwaukee, and Denver draw interested migrants. Chart courtesy of Zumper.com
If we project beyond summer of 2021, post Corona Virus, if the economy holds out, property rental prices should increase, and inner city apartment occupancy rate may rise again. This might be the basis of property manager’s positive outlook.

ULI offers its list of top housing markets, based on population growth, homebuilding outlook, affordability and job prospects:

1. Nashville, Tenn.
2. Raleigh/Durham, N.C.
3. Phoenix, Ariz.
4. Austin, Texas
5. Tampa/St. Petersburg, Fla.
6. Charlotte, N.C.
7. Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas
8. Atlanta, Ga.
9. Seattle, Wash.
10. Boston, Mass.

8. Pandemic Drives Demand for more Room

The demand for single-family house rentals has grown more intense. And in some cities (in charts below) rent prices are rocketing upward. Opportunities for property investors and property managers have therefore changed.

Charlotte, San Antonio, Milwaukee, and Denver draw interested migrants. Chart courtesy of Zumper.com

On a national basis, the rental migration shift to the suburbs and small towns isn’t such a bad thing. It’s resulted in new construction and new jobs in regions in the UK and US that have struggled for decades. And it’s created new opportunities for profitable rental housing investment. New opportunities offer business possibilities for new property management startup companies.

9. Apartment and House Rent Prices Forecast for 2022 and Next 5 Years?

For most cities, single family house rental prices may continue to rise as they have this year.

And property investors are wondering if rental income and 2022 tax rules will keep the rental housing sector an acceptable market for business. Avoiding big tax losses might be the issue for investors.

What about apartment purchase prices?

Screenshot courtesy of Harvard.edu

10. Multifamily Outlook

Freddie Mac reports that demand for multifamily housing is well down from 2019 levels, -60% in 2020 compared with 2019. Multifamily construction completions in 2020 are expected to nearly match 2019 levels, despite being slowed during the spring and summer of 2020.

They reported that investment activity declined sharply in the first half of 2020 but rebounded significantly during the second half of the year.  They expect the multifamily vacancy rate to increase to 5.8%, while rents are predicted to fall -0.2%, leading to an estimated overall decline in gross income of -0.5%.  They warn cities such as San Francisco, New York, Washington DC, and Miami will be troubled for some time.

Freddie Mac also forecasts the 2021 vacancy rate will rise 30 bps to 5.8%, while multifamily rent prices will fall 0.2%,
yet that is an improvement on 2020’s price drop of -2.9%.

Class C properties with downscale apartment rental tenants has been a troubled sector for landlords in 2020. The single family housing sector outside of dense inner cities has done well in 2020 and is the focus for investors in 2021.

The 2021/2022 outlook is stronger for single family due to demand for more space from all buyers including millennials starting families.

Screenshot above courtesy of Freddie Mac Multifamily 2021 Outlook Report.  Learn more on multifamily in the Freddie Mac report.

Screenshot above courtesy of Freddie Mac Multifamily 2021 Outlook Report.

For property investors, net operating incomes were growing strongly in the 3rd quarter of 2019 and investors were really stepping up investments. According to CoStar, the dollar volume of multifamily transactions rose 9% year over year, to $94 billion, through the first three quarters of 2019.

• new construction units are focused on higher-priced units
• air conditioning and in-suite laundry have grown strongly
• construction costs are rising
• apartment prices have doubled since 2010
• low rent apartments are increasingly unavailable
• actual renter market has been shrinking
• middle-income renters are increasingly cost-burdened

11. Harvard University Findings

Harvard produces a report each year on the rental market entitled: America’s Rental Housing. In it is a wide variety of stats that reflect the condition of properties and renters across the US. (See the German, UK and Australian reports). It isn’t up the Covid 19 era however.

Renters are wealthier as more of them are earning above $75,000 per year, but they are renting vs buying a home. Those at the bottom of the renter pool are earning less and renting less. The 2020 Harvard report didn’t specify what has happened to the lower-income group, but notes that homelessness is rising.

Chart courtesy of Harvard.edu.

Chart courtesy of Harvard.edu.

Chart courtesy of Harvard.edu.

12. What are the Challenges for Rental Property Owners?

High rents and low costs are not a given. Markets change, and your renters may not be able to keep up with higher rents and young renters expect different services.

For landlords who resist change and technology, pressures and responsibilities are mounting.

Landlords’ biggest challenges is in daily property management including maintenance, bookkeeping, tenant management, and meeting their budget. Keeping up with advancements in technology is another challenge that pressures many. In fact, a trend to migrate from old software solutions to more modern platforms is underway.

Landlords must learn new ways of doing business.

Landlords are faced with these top challenges:

• earning a profit
• finding a good property management company
• finding a good online property management software
• meeting tenants demands for instant service, self-service, extra amenities, and online payments
• managing the expense and risk of modernizing old rental properties
• finding affordable prices
• managing irate tenants who can’t afford their rising rents
• late rent payments, rent defaults, and rising rate of evictions
• selling then buying better properties with sustainable ROI
• working long hours, handling too many tasks and getting them all completed
• meeting government regulations

Landlords and property management company managers are welcoming a modern property management software solution offering cloud-based power, speed, security and expanded services.  Find out more about ManageCasa.

13. Rental Property Types

There’s no shortage of rental property types. From student housing and seniors housing, to fix and rent single family, to beachfront vacation rentals, and from studio apartments to luxury condos.

According to Rentcafe (2021), the most searched for apartments were 2 bedrooms (45%), 1 bedrooms (27%), 3 bedrooms (16%), and Studios (12%).

National Data Courtesy of Rentcafe.com

14. Are Renters are Getting Squeezed Too Hard?

One controversial, IMHO, is that rental housing is not being created or marketed to low-income earners. The lower-income segment simply isn’t being served. It might be said however, that governments could free up land, provide tax relief, and assist developers in building appropriate low-income housing solutions.

Such an effort may be well beyond the means of the private sector rental housing investment community in terms of cost and risk. Governments can if they choose, make it profitable for such housing to be built.

According to the Harvard report, 10.9 million renters spent more than half of their incomes on housing in 2018. In that year, the number of severely burdened households increased 155,000, reducing the total improvement since the 2014 peak to just 483,000. Cost burdened renters rose again in 2018, rising by 261,000 to 20.8 million.

They found that 72% of renters earning less than $15,000 annually were severely burdened, along with 43% who earned $15,000–29,999.

The rise in homelessness in Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, and other cities shows the problem is real.

15. Should I Buy Rental Property as an Investment?

In their report, PWC/ULI believe property prices will fall as buyer incomes fall in 2021 and 2022.  Their survey revealed those who foresee good/excellent prospects has dropped this year.

Rents keep rising in 92% of cities, and will 2021 see the same positive circumstance for rental property investment.

From Florida to California to Hawaii, the rental market remains constrained. Although prices have flattened or fallen in many areas, the revenue potential for builders and property owners is positive.

The US rental property market is a growing chunk of the now estimated $127 Trillion global real estate market which accounts for 60% of all mainstream assets.

The rental property market is less than half of the $36+ Trillion US Real estate market, yet for small property investors, it’s a fertile paradise.

Immigrants are a big component of rental demand and the US rental market is expected to focus more on immigrant buyers in the next 12 years.

 16. US Housing Construction Forecast

The housing construction market is brisk and expected to continue rising. Single-family detached and low rise condominiums are the most desired properties. The housing market needs 1.4 million new homes each year and this could increase in 2021 due to immigration.

“Though the multifamily sector is performing much better than nonresidential construction, developers are facing stiff headwinds in 2021,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Shortages and delays in obtaining building materials, rising lumber and OSB prices, labor shortages and a more ominous regulatory climate will aggravate affordability woes and delay delivery times.”

NAHB analysis of Census data reveals that 34% of total multifamily construction occurred in lower density, lower cost markets in 2020. “These areas have outpaced higher density markets over the past four quarters and we anticipate this trend will continue this year,” said Dietz in an NAHB report.

A recent report from RentCafe suggests that multi-unit construction is up 60,000 more units in January.

The US property rental market of 2022 offers great promise. They key to success will be good research and sound judgement in buying rentals in the best cities. Make sure you are utilizing the best property management software to ease your workload and create efficiencies and create sustainable cash flow.

Take a test drive of ManageCasa the best property management solution for landlords, property investors and property management companies. You’ll understand why a simple, online, cloud-based property software solution is the way to go.

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