Florida Housing Market
The sunny, beautiful and warm Florida climate, job market, and housing market continue to draw new residents and homebuyers in 2023.
In 2023, the state welcomed 365,000 new residents and massive investment in residential real estate here.
And more sellers will be there to greet these domestic and foreign buyers, buoyed by the fact many homes may be highly overvalued. Just one more reason that the Florida housing market and its rental market will be bright in 2024.
Buyers and sellers await lower mortgage rates in 2024 and 2025, but stats show they’re eager to buy and sell now. As you’ll learn, the Florida market has some peculiarities such as laws, condo assessments, and tax advantages. And businesses are moving to the state too lured by a host of benefits. Some are even calling Miami the new Wall Street.
For eager real estate buyers everywhere, the growth in home listings in Florida is welcome news.
Sales, Prices and Listings are Growing Strong Again
Sales stats from Florida Realtors reveal that home sales have already increased in November as locked-in homeowners test the market. Typically sales are slow this time of year, yet the increase in listings is the uncharacteristic factor this year, and it may predict a stronger peak season in 2024.
While the pandemic recession and post-pandemic interest rate jump dampened sales, 2023 was a slow year, but of late listings, sales, and prices are picking up.
If the surge in sales is due to falling mortgage rates, then 2024 may see the sales pace pick up strongly. Speculation is that the FED will drop the central rate and mortgages will fall as well. If December’s surge is any indication, then 2024 could see a big increase in homes listed for sale. As we highlighted in the Florida rental market report, the state is blessed with low taxes, a large tourism base, lower property prices, strong rental demand, and some rent price growth potential. And Florida is attracting new tech businesses to strengthen its already diversified economy.
And the new home construction sector is growing too. MoveBuddha reported that 6 of the top 20 US cities for new construction are in Florida. North Port, Cape Coral, Lakeland, Orlando and Tampa were the hottest FL cities for new construction. On the other hand, 7 out of the 10 most overvalued housing markets are also in Florida. Again, the cities of North Port, Cape Foral, Lakeland, Orlando and Tampa were cited as too pricey.
Many times homes are bought as rental income investment vehicles, and there’s little doubt homebuyers will be competing with large rental landlords for available listings. See the posts on the Florida rental market and the best cities in Florida to invest in real estate.
Florida Housing Market Report November 2023
Redfin, Florida Realtors and Zillow have released their latest reports on the housing market in Florida to the end of November.
What the trends reveal is a big jump in listings and inventory. That combined with lower mortgage rates is allowing more home sales and contributing to higher home and condo prices in the Sunshine State.
For only the second time in 12 months, closed sales rose, and in November, sales transactions increased 4.2%.
Median house prices rose 3.3% year over year to $413,000, a rise not seen since last February. The highest price growth rate by city was the Northport/Bradenton/Sarasota region (11%), Panama City (9%), Miami/FortLauderdale/WestPalmBeach (8%), Sebastian-Vero Beach (8%), Sebring (8%), and Tallahassee (8%).
Strong Florida Economy Bolstering Home Prices and Sales
Florida is a popular state with celebrities moving there to escape high taxes in other states and with international buyers who bought $12.6 billion in sales transactions in 2023 as reported by Miami Realtors. In addition, Florida tourism is returning after the pandemic although not quite to pre-pandemic levels. Overall, the economy is good.
According to a report from Florida’s UCF and Institute for Economic Forecasting, from 2023-2026, Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 1.5%. It is expected to decelerate during the predicted economic slowdown to 0.5% in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025, then accelerate to reach 1.7% by 2026.
If the US economic slowdown hits other states, it might not affect Florida.
“Florida’s economy today is more like Teflon. A lot of the effects of a national slowdown will just slide right off,” economist Sean Snaith Snaith says.
But is Florida simply a special place for migration, investment, and home purchases?
While Europeans and South Americans are typically the big sources of international buyers, Canadians are now the top International buyers in the State of Florida. Canadians purchased $2.1 Billion while Brazilians bought 1.4 billion. Almost half of that investment was into the Miami/Fort Lauderdale region.
This massive investment in Miami-Dade County is changing the culture and layout of the city. The downtown is changing to reflect Miami’s importance as a key city in the US and for international business.
In a Yahoo Finance report, Andrew Salamone, a Florida real estate agent said, cash buyers are seeing opportunities in the condo market.
“People are running scared from condos, not only because of the amount of the upcoming assessments necessary to meet the state’s requirements but because of the unknown nature of potential future repairs. Because of this unknown factor, condos are selling for deeply discounted prices that are likely to recover the moment that the final assessments are known.” — Yahoo Finance.
Florida Realtors report shows condo’s surprising 7.5% price increase in November with a huge 25.9% jump in new listings.
While we’d have to rate Florida’s real estate market as a seller’s market still, we may see a change to a buyer’s market in mid-2024.
See more on the Florida rental market and opportunities for investor landlords in rental houses and condos.
Making plans for your 2024 conference and trade show season? See the full list of major events in 2024.
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